Will The Drought Affect the Harvest of Georgia's Wheat Crop?

Wheat is the only major crop which may be impacted by the drought at this time (growing season). Georgia farmers planted about 300,000 acres to wheat during the fall of 1998 for harvest in 1999. Typically they harvest about 87% of that acreage for grain so it is anticipated that about 262,000 acres will be harvested this year.

While the drought may have some impact on wheat yields, it is not likely to reduce yields to the extent that a harvest or no-harvest decision has to be made by the farmer. The primary effects of drought on wheat production is to lower yield by reducing the size of the kernal. A compensating factor is that the protein content on a percentage basis tends to be somewhat higher.

The basic principle in deciding whether to harvest crops with reduced yield is that if you can harvest enough to cover the added cost of harvesting and marketing, then proceed with the harvest. Any product reaped that generates income above the added cost of harvesting and marketing would be available to offset other costs of production.

According to Extension Budgets, the approximate variable cost (fuel, labor, repairs and maintenance) of wheat harvest is $17 per acre. Marketing costs (transportation from farm and drying cost) may approximate another $6 per acre. Total variable costs then would be about $23 per acre. Current cash prices for wheat at interior buying points averages about $2.35 per bushel.

The breakeven yield ABOVE which harvest is economically justified would be $23 / $2.35 = about 9.8 bushels per acre. So, if estimated yields are at least 10 bushels per acre, then proceed to harvest the crop.

For more information contact: George Shumaker, 912-681-5653, Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Cooperative Extension Service, The University of Georgia.